- FRBは今後3回の会合（9月・10月・12月）で利上げ→据え置き→利上げのパターンを取るか？8¢
- FRBは次の3回の決定（9月・10月・12月）で利上げ–据え置き–据え置きとなりますか？17¢
- 次の3回の決定（9月・10月・12月）でFRBは連続利上げを行うか？5¢
- FRBは今後3回の決定（9月・10月・12月）で引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置きを行うか？10¢
- FRBは次の3回の決定（9月・10月・12月）で据え置き・据え置き・利上げとなりますか？11¢
- FRBは今後3回の会合（9月・10月・12月）で利上げを見送る（ポーズ）でしょうか？28¢
- FRBは今後3回の決定（9月・10月・12月）でポーズ・利上げ・利上げとなりますか？7¢
- FRBは今後3回の決定（9月–10月–12月）で「据え置き–利上げ–据え置き」となるか？8¢
- FRBは次の3回の決定（9月、10月、12月）で異なる判断を下すか？11¢
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Recent cooling in July CPI to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% has eased some immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve, supporting the 28% implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause across the September, October/November, and December meetings, though the fragmented field underscores ongoing uncertainty. With the policy rate steady at the 3.50–3.75% target range amid headline PCE inflation near 4% earlier in the year from energy shocks, trader consensus prices in a closely balanced debate between maintaining accommodation and the need for further tightening to anchor expectations. August CPI data due September 11 and the FOMC's September 16–17 decision with updated projections represent key near-term catalysts, while labor market stability around 4.1–4.3% unemployment and resilient growth limit the case for aggressive moves. Market-implied paths remain sensitive to whether disinflation proves durable or reaccelerates.