- 2026年10月会合後にFRBは金利を25ベーシスポイント引き上げますか？25¢
- 2026年10月の会合後、FRBは金利を50ベーシスポイント以上引き下げるでしょうか？1¢
- 2026年10月の会合後、FRBの金利は据え置きになりますか？72¢
- 2026年10月の会合後、FRBは金利を25ベーシスポイント引き下げますか？4¢
- 2026年10月会合後、FRBは金利を50ベーシスポイント以上引き上げますか？1¢
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Recent July FOMC minutes revealed growing support among officials for tighter policy if inflation fails to moderate, with three dissents favoring a July hike and many viewing current settings as insufficiently restrictive given broad-based price pressures. Elevated inflation—driven by energy shocks from Middle East tensions and tariffs—has remained above the 2% target for over five years, while the labor market has stabilized with unemployment near 4.1-4.2% and contained wage growth. Softer recent CPI and jobs data have reduced near-term tightening odds, supporting trader consensus that the Fed is likely to hold the 3.50-3.75% funds rate range into October pending further clarity from the September dot plot and incoming releases.