- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?1¢1%
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?7¢7%
- 1%1,1%December 313,7 M $ forgalom
- 1%7%June 30, 202717,5 E $ forgalom
Ukrainian forces have intensified strikes on Russian military infrastructure in occupied Crimea, including a November 4–5 attack on a drone storage and launch site near Hvardiiske, alongside repeated hits on power grids that caused widespread outages and extended school closures. These operations form part of a sustained campaign targeting logistics routes, fuel depots, and the Kerch Bridge area to constrain Russian resupply to southern fronts. Ukrainian officials report no major ground advances into the peninsula itself, while Russian forces maintain defensive positions amid broader frontline pressure elsewhere. Traders price limited near-term prospects for territorial recapture, reflecting the absence of large-scale Ukrainian offensives aimed at Crimea and the entrenched Russian military presence. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any shifts in long-range strike intensity could influence assessments through year-end.
Szabályok
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.