- Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?3¢3%
The White House has repeatedly stated that a pardon or commutation for Ghislaine Maxwell is not under consideration or a priority, with press secretary statements and DOJ testimony confirming no active review or recommendation as of late 2026. This stance aligns with sustained congressional opposition, including Senate resolutions against clemency, and public pressure surrounding ongoing Epstein file releases. Maxwell’s legal team has continued to signal interest in trading testimony for relief, yet no formal application has advanced amid these barriers. Traders reflect this through the 96.8% No probability, consistent with the absence of any recent policy shift. A change remains possible if new Epstein-related disclosures create unexpected leverage or if administration priorities evolve before December 31.
Szabályok
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.