- US imports Russian diesel by November 15?7¢7%
- US imports Russian diesel by November 30?12¢12%
- US imports Russian diesel by December 31?14¢14%
- US imports Russian diesel by January 31?18¢18%
- US imports Russian diesel by March 31?23¢23%
- 7%November 1568,1 E $ forgalom
- 1%12%November 30372 E $ forgalom
- 2%14,5%December 31147,1 E $ forgalom
- 17,5%January 31121,4 E $ forgalom
- 2%23%March 3145,9 E $ forgalom
Recent tanker diversions and buyer hesitation amid legal risks have become the dominant driver of sentiment in the US imports Russian diesel market. Despite the October 9 Trump-Putin announcement and OFAC General License 135 authorizing Russian-origin diesel transactions—including imports—through April 7, 2027, the 2022 Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act remains in force without congressional repeal. Multiple state officials and lawmakers have warned of penalties, while several sanctioned vessels initially routed for the US East Coast have rerouted toward Brazil or the Mediterranean. Russia’s exportable diesel supply is constrained by refinery outages exceeding 40% capacity, limiting incremental volumes, and the US remains a net diesel exporter. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with near-term deadlines pricing in substantial delivery barriers while longer horizons price higher probabilities contingent on resolved compliance risks.
Szabályok
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify. To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.