- Trump out as President before 2027?3¢3%
Trump faces removal before 2027 only in the narrow window before the new Congress convenes in January. Republicans currently hold majorities in both chambers, requiring any House impeachment vote or Senate conviction to occur under the existing balance of power. The short timeline leaves insufficient opportunity for investigations, articles of impeachment, or a full Senate trial to conclude. Recent midterm results shifted Democratic control starting in 2027, but that change falls outside the market’s resolution period. Health reports note routine medical checks and age-related observations without documented incapacity triggering the 25th Amendment. Realistic shifts in odds would require an abrupt event such as sudden medical incapacity, voluntary resignation, or an unforeseen scandal prompting immediate bipartisan action, none of which current developments indicate.
Szabályok
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.