- Will Google have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?77¢77 %
- Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?20¢20 %
- Will Alibaba (including Alibaba-ATH) have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?3¢3 %
- Will SpaceXAI have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?3¢3 %
- Will Luma AI have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Pika have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will ByteDance have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Shengshu have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Pruna have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Runway have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Tencent have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Black Forest Labs have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
28 %77,2 %GooglePromet 6,5 tis. $
30 %19,5 %MiniMaxPromet 11,4 tis. $
2 %2,8 %Alibaba/Alibaba-ATHPromet 953,3 $
2,7 %SpaceXAIPromet 965,5 $
0,6 %Luma AIPromet 641,4 $
0,5 %PikaPromet 934,8 $
0,3 %ByteDancePromet 812,7 $
0,3 %ShengshuPromet 1,5 tis. $
0,3 %PrunaPromet 791,1 $
0,3 %RunwayPromet 922,4 $
Google's dominant 75.9% market-implied odds stem from the November 5 release of Gemini Omni 1.2 Flash, which adds native 15-second clips, multi-turn conversational editing, stronger character and object consistency, and 30% lower pricing while maintaining top-tier prompt adherence and reference-image support. Independent arenas show Google models leading or tied for first in blind image-to-video preference votes, outpacing competitors through superior physics, lip-sync, and production-scale reliability. MiniMax (21.5%) remains a credible challenger via its H3 model's reference volume and 4K options, yet lacks Google's recent momentum and ecosystem integration. Lower-probability names such as Alibaba's Wan series, ByteDance Seedance, and Kling reflect capable but less frequently updated offerings that traders view as unlikely to overtake the leader before month-end resolution.
Pravila
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".