- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?73¢73 %
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?24¢24 %
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?4¢4 %
- Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
1 %73 %GooglePromet 168,8 tis. $
2 %24 %AnthropicPromet 137 tis. $
1 %4,2 %OpenAIPromet 78,1 tis. $
0,4 %MetaPromet 71,1 tis. $
0,3 %SpaceXAIPromet 80,6 tis. $
0,2 %Z.aiPromet 51,6 tis. $
0,2 %DeepSeekPromet 68,4 tis. $
Google’s Gemini 4 Carbon frontier model, released in late October 2026 and topping Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v5 scores around 59–60 while leading several LMArena categories, has driven the 72.5% market-implied odds for the company. Its edge stems from strong results on reasoning, coding, and science benchmarks against Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5.5 (23.5% odds), which remains the top widely available large language model. OpenAI’s GPT-6 series trails at 4%, with limited recent gains. Restricted initial rollout of Carbon to select users creates some uncertainty through November 30 resolution, yet trader consensus favors Google’s competitive positioning and benchmark momentum over other labs.
Pravila
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".