- Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?75¢75 %
- Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?15¢15 %
- Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?8¢8 %
- Will SpaceXAI have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?1¢1 %
- Will Alibaba have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Moonshot have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Xiaomi have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Tencent have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Meituan have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Z.ai have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
4 %75 %AnthropicPromet 15,8 tis. $
6 %15 %OpenAIPromet 7,8 tis. $
2 %7,7 %GooglePromet 2,6 tis. $
1,1 %SpaceXAIPromet 1,3 tis. $
0,8 %AlibabaPromet 1 tis. $
0,5 %MoonshotPromet 924 $
0,5 %DeepSeekPromet 906,2 $
0,5 %XiaomiPromet 863,4 $
0,5 %TencentPromet 904,5 $
0,4 %Z.aiPromet 1,2 tis. $
0,4 %MetaPromet 1,2 tis. $
0,3 %MiniMaxPromet 842,4 $
Traders assign Anthropic a dominant 76.5% implied probability for delivering the best AI agent by end of November, reflecting its recent Claude model releases that have demonstrated stronger autonomous tool use, multi-step reasoning, and integration with external systems compared with peers. OpenAI and Google sit far behind at roughly 10% each, consistent with slower public progress on fully agentic large language models amid ongoing safety and capability refinements. Lower-odds entrants such as SpaceXAI, Alibaba, and others remain under 2%, underscoring limited verified breakthroughs in this narrow window. Upcoming developer conferences and any surprise model updates in the next three weeks represent the main near-term catalysts that could alter current market-implied odds before resolution.
Pravila
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.