- Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026?81¢81 %
- Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026?11¢11 %
- Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026?8¢8 %
- Will SpaceXAI have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026?2¢2 %
- Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026?2¢2 %
- Will Moonshot have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026?1¢1 %
- Will MiniMax have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Alibaba have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Z.ai have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will ByteDance have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Baidu have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
12 %80,5 %AnthropicPromet 3,9 tis. $
3 %11,4 %GooglePromet 2 tis. $
4 %8 %OpenAIPromet 3,4 tis. $
1 %2 %SpaceXAIPromet 670,2 $
1 %2 %MetaPromet 777,1 $
1 %1,2 %MoonshotPromet 632,9 $
0,6 %MiniMaxPromet 448,7 $
0,6 %AlibabaPromet 623,2 $
1 %0,5 %Z.aiPromet 712,6 $
0,5 %DeepSeekPromet 556,2 $
1 %0,5 %ByteDancePromet 679,2 $
0,5 %BaiduPromet 505,2 $
Anthropic’s strong market-implied odds of 77.5% for the best AI agent by end-December 2026 stem from Claude Opus 5.5’s September 2026 launch, which tops agentic coding and knowledge-work benchmarks while cutting runtime costs 40%. Traders cite recent METR findings of doubled R&D velocity, Claude’s 90%+ codebase contributions, and single-agent architectures that outperform multi-agent setups on latency and reliability. Supporting releases like Haiku 5.5 for subagents and the open Agent Skills standard further widen the gap versus OpenAI’s Terra dots and Google’s Gemini Argon. With resolution one month away, sustained benchmark leads and enterprise adoption trends reinforce this consensus while leaving room for late model updates to shift positioning.
Pravila
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.