- Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?37¢37 %
- Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?35¢35 %
- Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?14¢14 %
- Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?8¢8 %
- Will OpenAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?7¢7 %
- Will Mistral be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?5¢5 %
- Will MiniMax be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?5¢5 %
- Will SpaceXAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?3¢3 %
- Will Xiaomi be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?2¢2 %
- Will DeepSeek be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?2¢2 %
- Will Moonshot be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?2¢2 %
- Will Z.ai be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?2¢2 %
36,5 %AnthropicPromet 3,5 tis. $
4 %34,5 %GooglePromet 3,6 tis. $
3 %14,5 %MetaPromet 1,1 tis. $
1 %8,3 %AlibabaPromet 399,8 $
1 %7,4 %OpenAIPromet 374,3 $
1 %5,3 %MistralPromet 606,1 $
1 %4,8 %MiniMaxPromet 486,2 $
2,6 %SpaceXAIPromet 796,8 $
1,9 %XiaomiPromet 256,6 $
1 %1,9 %DeepSeekPromet 865 $
1 %1,8 %MoonshotPromet 290,4 $
1,8 %Z.aiPromet 950,8 $
Leading AI labs remain closely matched in trader consensus for second-best status by end of January, with Anthropic holding a modest edge over Google due to sustained large language model releases and demonstrated capabilities in reasoning benchmarks. Competitive dynamics hinge on recent model updates, developer ecosystem growth, and partnerships that could shift perceived leadership, while OpenAI's lower odds reflect its established frontrunner position leaving less room for second place. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new releases or regulatory developments affecting deployment, underscoring how incremental advances in AI safety and performance continue to influence market-implied probabilities amid rapid industry evolution.
Pravila
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on January 31, 2027, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".