- Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by November 30, 2026?31¢31 %
- Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by December 31, 2026?49¢49 %
- 13 %31 %November 30Promet 771,3 $
- 47 %49 %December 31Promet 4,3 tis. $
Meta’s Muse Spark series, a family of multimodal large language models from Meta Superintelligence Labs emphasizing agentic workflows, coding, and tool use, has followed a roughly monthly cadence through version 1.3 in early September 2026. Trader sentiment for a 1.4+ proprietary release centers on the October 15 launch of Muse Spark Open—an 816B-parameter mixture-of-experts open-weights model optimized for desktop inference on Apple silicon and platforms like Hugging Face—which did not satisfy versioning criteria and resolved the prior October 31 deadline market to “no.” This shift toward open access and integration with Muse Code and the Meta Model API has slowed proprietary iteration, leaving markets pricing a November 30 resolution at roughly 62% for no release. Key upcoming catalysts include Meta’s product roadmap signals and competitive benchmark updates against frontier models.
Pravila
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.