- Y aura-t-il moins de 25 transits quotidiens moyens du détroit de Bab el-Mandeb le 30 septembre ?49¢
- Y aura-t-il entre 25 et 29 transits quotidiens moyens du détroit de Bab el-Mandeb le 30 septembre ?18¢
- Y aura-t-il entre 30 et 34 transits quotidiens moyens du détroit de Bab el-Mandeb le 30 septembre ?15¢
- Y aura-t-il entre 35 et 39 transits quotidiens moyens du détroit de Bab el-Mandeb le 30 septembre ?7¢
- Y aura-t-il 40 transits quotidiens moyens ou plus du détroit de Bab el-Mandeb le 30 septembre ?5¢
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ongoing Houthi threats and attacks targeting Red Sea shipping, including July 2026 strikes on Saudi-linked tankers and blockade announcements, represent the dominant driver behind the 49.3% implied probability for fewer than 25 daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by end-September. Recent AIS and tracking data show traffic already suppressed to roughly 40-60 vessels per day in late August, down sharply from 2023 baselines near 70, with tanker volumes hit hardest amid elevated war-risk premiums and selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This positions the sub-25 bin as the leading outcome in aggregated trader sentiment, reflecting expectations that persistent security risks and selective carrier pullbacks will sustain or deepen the contraction through the month-end window.