- Le trafic du détroit d'Ormuz revient-il à la normale d'ici le 31 décembre ?38¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ongoing conflict and enforcement actions have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic far below normal levels through August 2026, supporting trader expectations that full recovery will not occur by December 31. Iran closed or severely restricted the strait in late February/early March 2026 amid the Iran war, dropping daily transits from roughly 95–140 to averages of 10–15 (sometimes as low as 2–5), with many vessels operating dark or on limited routes. A June U.S.-Iran memorandum produced a temporary rebound to around 36 transits per day, but renewed strikes and hostilities from early July onward reversed gains, leaving traffic at roughly 4–10% of pre-crisis levels. Iranian forces have enforced approved northern routes, issued turn-back orders, blacklisted dozens of tankers, and conducted attacks, while the U.S. has facilitated select southern-corridor movements amid mine risks and navigation interference. Recent developments include continued low throughput in mid-to-late August, zero outbound transits on some days, ongoing projectile incidents, and high war-risk insurance premiums that deter standard commercial operations. Major carriers have rerouted or suspended use, thousands of sailors and hundreds of vessels remain stranded in the Gulf, and diplomatic talks with Oman on corridor frameworks have not restored unrestricted flows. These structural barriers and persistent kinetic risks explain the 62.5% implied probability that normal traffic volumes will not return by year-end.