- Israël ferme-t-il son espace aérien d'ici le 30 septembre ?100¢100 %
- Israël ferme son espace aérien d'ici le 15 juin ?0¢0 %
- Israël ferme son espace aérien d'ici le 30 juin ?0¢0 %
- Israël ferme-t-il son espace aérien d'ici le 31 juillet ?0¢0 %
- Israël ferme-t-il son espace aérien d'ici le 31 mai ?0¢0 %
- Israël ferme son espace aérien d'ici le 15 juillet ?0¢0 %
- Israël ferme-t-il son espace aérien d'ici le 31 août ?0¢0 %
- Israël ferme son espace aérien d'ici le 9 juin ?0¢0 %
- Israël ferme-t-il son espace aérien d'ici le 8 juin ?0¢0 %
- Israël ferme-t-il son espace aérien d'ici le 10 juin ?0¢0 %
- Israël ferme-t-il son espace aérien d'ici le 15 août ?0¢0 %
- Israël ferme-t-il son espace aérien d'ici le 24 juillet ?0¢0 %
Recent escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict and associated regional threats have shaped trader expectations for a major Israeli airspace closure by late September 2026. Missile and drone exchanges since February, including Iranian barrages in June that prompted temporary suspensions, have led to repeated restrictions at Ben Gurion Airport despite a fragile April ceasefire. As of mid-September, Israeli airspace remains open to limited commercial operations but faces ongoing volatility from Iran-backed groups including Hezbollah and the Houthis. A U.S. Embassy security alert issued September 19 specifically warned of potential sudden cancellations and closures ahead of Yom Kippur, citing the complex security environment. These factors, combined with airline caution and historical patterns of short-notice shutdowns during active threats, underpin the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current market pricing for resolution by September 30.
Règles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.