- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?1¢
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?<1¢
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?41¢
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?3¢
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?57¢
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Traders assign the highest implied probability (57.5%) to Pause–Pause–Pause across the remaining 2026 FOMC meetings through October because July CPI moderated to 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while recent labor data showed unexpected job losses, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%. The July decision already delivered a pause, and economist surveys plus futures pricing now embed limited odds of a September or October move amid still-elevated but easing inflation pressures from prior energy shocks. Hawkish elements in July minutes and divided dots create the 40.5% “Other” bucket, reflecting scenarios with a later hike, yet the market-implied path aligns closely with the Fed’s data-dependent stance ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and August CPI release.