- Pagtaas ng Fed rate sa 2026?56¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent inflation data and geopolitical supply shocks have anchored trader sentiment around a modest likelihood of a 2026 Fed rate hike. July 2026 CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, still above the 2% target amid elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, while the July FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% but saw three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase. Resilient GDP growth near 2%, a stable unemployment rate around 4.3%, and hawkish signals from Chair Warsh have sustained market-implied odds near 56.5% for at least one hike this year, even as softer monthly prints and economist polls point to a possible hold. Upcoming September CPI and FOMC decisions remain key swing factors for near-term repricing.