- Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?42¢
- Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?38¢
- Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?10¢
- Will Claude go down 11-13 times in October?1¢
- Will Claude go down 14+ times in October?<1¢
Anthropic's Claude services have experienced several early-October incidents, including a multi-day stretch of elevated errors on platform.claude.com from October 7-13, shorter API and model-specific issues around October 5-7, and isolated outages earlier in the month. As of October 18, status pages show all components operational with no new major disruptions reported in the past week, supporting the tight market split between fewer than five days and five-to-seven days total. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's improving incident resolution times and high baseline uptime against the remaining 13 days of October, where even brief model or console problems could shift the count. Competitive pressures from other large language model providers and ongoing scaling of Claude's infrastructure add to the uncertainty around future stability.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).