This market will resolve according to the official UFC Middleweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Sean Strickland holds the UFC middleweight title after reclaiming it via split decision over Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 328 in May 2026, marking his second reign with no defenses yet. Trader consensus favors him at 55.6% to remain champion through year-end, reflecting his experience, volume striking, and recent form despite a shoulder injury delaying his return. Nassourdine Imavov sits at 37.5% as the clear next challenger, riding a five-fight win streak and confirmed for a December title bout that could shift the division lead. Lower probabilities for Chimaev, Dricus du Plessis, and others stem from recent losses, inactivity, or ranking gaps, though any upset in the Strickland-Imavov matchup or subsequent defenses could alter the 2026 outcome before December 31.