- Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?89¢
- Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between September 7 and September 13, 2026?6¢
- Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between September 14 and September 20, 2026?<1¢
- Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between September 21 and September 27, 2026?3¢
- Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026?<1¢
- Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?<1¢
- Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?<1¢
- Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026?<1¢
- Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?<1¢
- Will OpenAI’s Astra model not be released by November 1, 2026?<1¢
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
OpenAI’s September 1 blog post confirming that Astra has reached the company’s “Critical” cybersecurity capability threshold under its Preparedness Framework serves as the main catalyst behind the 90.5% market-implied odds for an August 31–September 6 release. After pausing development to add safeguards following the Hugging Face incident, the company stated it believes risks are now sufficiently minimized for launch, with advanced cyber features initially limited to testers and its Daybreak Blue program. Traders view the phrasing “make Astra available soon” alongside completed evaluations and resumed work as strong signals of an imminent rollout this week. Unexpected last-minute testing setbacks or regulatory scrutiny could still shift the timeline despite the current consensus.