- Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released prior to October 26, 2026?9¢9%
- Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?11¢11%
- Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?12¢12%
- Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?12¢12%
- Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?23¢23%
- Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between November 23 and November 29, 2026?8¢8%
- Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026?6¢6%
- Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between December 7 and December 13, 2026?8¢8%
- Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between December 14 and December 20, 2026?3¢3%
- Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released between December 21 and December 27, 2026?10¢10%
- Will there be no next GPT Terra model (5.7+) release by December 27, 2026?27¢27%
The closely matched probabilities across late November through December 2026 reflect trader uncertainty around OpenAI’s irregular release cadence for the next GPT-5.7+ Terra tier model, following the GPT-5.6 family’s July general availability and the subsequent GPT-6 Astra, Sol, and Luna launches in September. Recent efficiency gains and pricing cuts for existing Terra variants, alongside ongoing safety and regulatory scrutiny seen in prior rollouts, have slowed iteration timelines while competitors advance comparable balanced models. Key swing factors include potential announcements at upcoming developer events, supply-chain or inference optimizations, and any government review requirements that could push resolution past year-end. Market-implied odds treat these as aggregated, capital-backed sentiment rather than guarantees amid shifting AI capability benchmarks and platform dynamics.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.