- Walmart (WMT) Q3 US eCommerce sales growth <17%?3¢3%
- Walmart (WMT) Q3 US eCommerce sales growth 17% to 21%?6¢6%
- Walmart (WMT) Q3 US eCommerce sales growth 21% to 25%?73¢73%
- Walmart (WMT) Q3 US eCommerce sales growth 25% to 29%?23¢23%
- Walmart (WMT) Q3 US eCommerce sales growth 29%+?<1¢<1%
Walmart US eCommerce sales growth for the upcoming Q3 centers on the 21-25% range at a 61% market-implied probability, reflecting sustained but moderating momentum after multiple quarters above 20%. Recent results showed US eCommerce advancing 28% in the prior period, fueled by store-fulfilled pickup and delivery, expedited options under three hours capturing significant order volume, and third-party marketplace expansion, which together lifted comparable sales by roughly 440 basis points. Global eCommerce rose 27%, marking the seventh straight quarter of 20%+ gains amid broader revenue growth of 5.8% to $179.5 billion. Traders appear to price in a modest step-down from that peak due to a higher base, potential normalization in fulfillment contributions, and competitive dynamics, while still expecting solid double-digit expansion ahead of the earnings release. The narrower 25-29% band holds 28% odds, underscoring the market’s assessment of continued strength without a sharp acceleration.
Rules
This market will resolve according to Walmart's Q3 Walmart U.S. eCommerce sales growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.