- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Virginia Senate election by 3% or more?<1¢<1%
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Virginia Senate election by 0%-3%?3¢3%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Virginia Senate election by 0%-3%?3¢3%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Virginia Senate election by 3%-6%?<1¢<1%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Virginia Senate election by 6%-9%?6¢6%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Virginia Senate election by 9%-12%?3¢3%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Virginia Senate election by 12%-15%?7¢7%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Virginia Senate election by 15%-18%?17¢17%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Virginia Senate election by 18%-21%?10¢10%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Virginia Senate election by 21% or more?65¢65%
Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner maintains a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race against Republican Bert Mizusawa, with available polling averages showing leads of roughly 18-20 points and forecasts projecting similar or slightly narrower margins. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting Virginia’s recent voting patterns and Warner’s incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition. Mizusawa secured the GOP nomination in the August primary but has not narrowed the gap in subsequent assessments. Trader consensus on a Democratic margin of 21% or more aligns with these fundamentals and the absence of major late-cycle shifts, while the November 3 election date leaves limited room for unforeseen developments to alter the trajectory.
Rules
The 2026 Virginia Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Virginia Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.