- Will the Republican Party win the UT-02 House seat?95¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the UT-02 House seat?5¢
Blake Moore holds a commanding lead in Utah’s 2nd Congressional District as the Republican incumbent and House Republican Conference vice chair. The newly redrawn northern Utah seat spans heavily Republican territory including Box Elder, Cache, Davis, and parts of Weber counties, where past voting patterns show a 33-point GOP advantage. Moore defeated a primary challenger in June and benefits from established fundraising and institutional support ahead of the November 3 general election. Democratic nominee Peter Crosby, a first-time candidate, has narrowed the gap in some internal surveys and highlighted affordability and accountability themes in the October 13 debate, yet public polling continues to show Moore ahead. Third-party entries remain marginal. Late developments such as a major scandal or national political shift could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).