- US bank failure by December 31, 2026?85¢
US bank failure by December 31, 2026? With six FDIC-insured institutions already closed in 2026—totaling roughly $1.45 billion in assets, led by Nano Banc’s $736 million September failure—the market’s 55% implied probability for “No” reflects the banking sector’s overall resilience despite elevated small-bank stress. The FDIC’s problem-bank list rose to 52 institutions (1.1% of supervised banks) with $66.3 billion in assets, driven by commercial real estate delinquencies and higher-for-longer rates, yet this remains well below historical crisis levels. Large banks passed the 2026 DFAST stress tests with only a 1.6 percentage point aggregate CET1 decline to 11.2%, enabling increased capital returns, while industry net income reached $90.1 billion in Q2 and capital/liquidity metrics stayed strong. With just 2.5 months left and failures occurring at irregular intervals, traders price limited near-term resolution risk absent a sharp deterioration in CRE or liquidity conditions.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.