TX-22 House Election Winner

PoliticsElectionsUS ElectionMidtermsNov 4 ElectionsHouse ElectionsTexas Midterm
Start Date
2026-01-29
End Date
2026-11-03
24h Volume
$2K
Total Volume
$26K
  • Will the Republican Party win the TX-22 House seat?91¢
  • Will the Democratic Party win the TX-22 House seat?8¢

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

The Texas 22nd congressional district's established Republican partisan lean, reinforced by recent redistricting and historical election margins, underpins trader consensus around a Republican hold. Troy Nehls's retirement opened the seat, but his identical twin Trever Nehls captured the GOP nomination decisively in the March 2026 primary with strong margins across key counties. Marquette Greene-Scott emerged as the Democratic nominee after her primary. The race rating remains solid Republican per nonpartisan analysts, reflecting limited crossover voting potential and fundraising disparities. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or an unforeseen national political realignment could narrow the gap before November, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current indicators.