- Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 15?13¢13%
- Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 30?62¢62%
- Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?94¢94%
Trump’s February 2026 directive established the PURSUE program, directing federal agencies to identify and release UAP-related records on a rolling basis. The Pentagon has issued seven tranches since May, with the latest on October 23, 2026, including 2026 reports of silent triangular craft over sensitive sites alongside older documents from the 1940s–1960s. Officials describe the effort as ongoing, with additional batches in preparation. These confirmed releases and the administration’s stated commitment to transparency have shaped trader views on near-term declassification timelines, while the absence of a fixed endpoint and the incremental nature of the process introduce uncertainty around specific deadlines.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market’s timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.