- Will Trump's approval rating be at least 36.0 on October 23, 2026?88¢
- Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.0 on October 23, 2026?82¢
- Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 23, 2026?60¢
- Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.0 on October 23, 2026?46¢
- Will Trump's approval rating be at least 40.0 on October 23, 2026?10¢
- Will Trump's approval rating be at least 41.0 on October 23, 2026?11¢
Recent polling averages place President Trump’s job approval in the mid-to-high 30s, with individual surveys from mid-October showing figures such as 36% (Fox News) and 35–38% (AP-NORC, YouGov). Declines have been driven by voter dissatisfaction with inflation, the economy, and tariffs, alongside lower support for handling of foreign policy including the Iran conflict. Net approval has reached new lows near –22 to –28 in several trackers, reflecting erosion even among some Republican and independent respondents ahead of the November midterms. With only days until the October 23 measurement window, short-term stability appears likely absent a major economic release, diplomatic development, or other high-impact event capable of shifting sentiment.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling is equal to or higher than the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on October 23, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources. If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.