- Will Anthropic be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?1¢
- Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?10¢
- Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?<1¢
- Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?29¢
- Will OpenAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?14¢
- Will Baidu be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?7¢
- Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?8¢
- Will Xiaomi be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?<1¢
- Will Moonshot be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?5¢
- Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?1¢
- Will Nvidia be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?<1¢
- Will DeepSeek be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Several AI labs remain tightly clustered in the race for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard heading into late September, with market-implied odds reflecting high uncertainty among mid-tier contenders. Alibaba’s recent Qwen3.8-max and related releases have boosted its positioning through strong mathematical reasoning performance in head-to-head votes, while Z.ai’s GLM-5 series, Moonshot’s Kimi models, and OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants compete closely on math-specific benchmarks and expert prompts. Meta, Google, and others add further volatility through iterative updates that target coding-adjacent math tasks. With resolution based on the September 30 lab ranking snapshot, any new model drops or rapid shifts in human preference data over the next four weeks represent the main swing factors traders are monitoring.