- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?18¢18%
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,000-$6,500 in December?6¢6%
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,500-$7,000 in December?12¢12%
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,500 in December?13¢13%
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,500-$8,000 in December?26¢26%
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December?36¢36%
Trader sentiment for the S&P 500 closing 2026 above $7,500 reflects the index’s current level near 7,720 amid resilient U.S. economic growth and robust corporate earnings, which have driven double-digit year-to-date gains. Elevated September PCE inflation at 3.6% year-over-year and the Fed’s October 28 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.75–4% have introduced caution, with higher Treasury yields tightening financial conditions. Analyst consensus targets cluster near 7,967, supporting the 61% combined probability on the $7,500–$8,000+ buckets, while AI-capex concerns and midterm-election uncertainty sustain the 20.5% chance of a sub-$6,000 close. Key near-term catalysts include further inflation data and post-election liquidity trends.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."