- Will Vox receive less than 16% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?7¢7%
- Will Vox receive between 16% and 18% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?35¢35%
- Will Vox receive between 18% and 20% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?37¢37%
- Will Vox receive between 20% and 22% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?23¢23%
- Will Vox receive 22% or more of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?6¢6%
Recent polling averages place Vox at 18.9-19.1% of the vote ahead of Spain’s November 29 snap general election, supporting the market’s narrow lead for the 18-20% bucket. Voter movement from the PP to Vox has offset modest PP erosion in the final month, while the PSOE has posted small gains that narrow but do not overturn the right-wing bloc’s projected majority. The PP-Vox Senate coordination agreement, under which Vox ceded several races, has reinforced expectations of post-election cooperation without altering congressional vote-share forecasts. Vox’s focus on government accountability following the Urda train accident and its positioning on immigration and institutional issues have sustained its support base. With roughly one month remaining, modest shifts in turnout or late campaign dynamics could still move Vox within or outside the current leading range.
Rules
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the valid votes cast in the election to the Congress of Deputies of Spain received by Vox. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The vote share will be calculated as the total number of valid votes received by the lists attributed to Vox divided by the total number of valid votes cast, as reported in the official results. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).