- Will Kamala Harris win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?27¢27%
- Will Raphael Warnock win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?22¢22%
- Will Jon Ossoff win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?18¢18%
- Will Cory Booker win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?17¢17%
- Will Gavin Newsom win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?9¢9%
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?4¢4%
- Will Michelle Obama win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?4¢4%
- Will J.B. Pritzker win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?4¢4%
- Will Rahm Emanuel win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?2¢2%
- Will Mark Kelly win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?1¢1%
- Will Wes Moore win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?1¢1%
- Will James Talarico win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?1¢1%
The DNC's July 2026 decision to place South Carolina first on the 2028 Democratic primary calendar on January 22 has elevated the state's role, given its large Black Democratic electorate and influence on early momentum. Trader consensus shows a fragmented field, with Kamala Harris at 27.5% ahead of Raphael Warnock, Jon Ossoff, and Cory Booker, reflecting name recognition and limited state-specific data this far out. No major candidates have declared, keeping probabilities tightly bunched as national polling and historical SC voting patterns provide the main signals. Candidate visits, endorsements from state party leaders, formal announcements, and targeted polling among key demographics could quickly widen gaps before the primary.
Rules
South Carolina is expected to hold its Democratic presidential primary for the 2028 presidential election on January 22, 2028. This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the most votes in the South Carolina Democratic primary, caucus, or other official process by which the public directs the selection of delegates for the 2028 Democratic Convention. If the relevant delegate selection process is a caucus or other multi-round process, the relevant vote count will be the final round vote count. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If no 2028 South Carolina primary, caucus, or comparable process takes place, or if the results are not definitively known by August 1, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the complete results from the South Carolina Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.