- Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?56¢56%
- Will Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?21¢21%
- Will Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?12¢12%
- Will Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?6¢6%
- Will Javier Lamarque Cano win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?2¢2%
- Will Damián Zepeda Vidales win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?<1¢<1%
- Will Natalia Rivera Grijalva win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?<1¢<1%
- Will Ernesto Gándara Camou win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?<1¢<1%
- Will Manuel Scott Sánchez win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?<1¢<1%
- Will Omar del Valle Colosio win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?<1¢<1%
- Will Guadalupe María Soto win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?<1¢<1%
- Will Froylán Gámez Gamboa win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?<1¢<1%
Lorenia Valles Sampedro leads Sonora’s 2027 gubernatorial race as Morena’s state coordinator following her September 2026 appointment and subsequent PT endorsement, with recent October polls showing the party at roughly 41 percent and her edging or tying head-to-head matchups against PAN’s Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez. Fragmented opposition support across Movimiento Ciudadano’s Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas, PRI figures, and other aspirants limits any single challenger’s ability to consolidate votes, sustaining a competitive field. Trader consensus reflects Morena’s structural advantage from current state and federal alignment, while primary outcomes, coalition negotiations, and late-campaign shifts remain key variables that could alter probabilities before the June 2027 election.
Rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.