- Will Imelda Castro Castro win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?61¢
- Will Mario Zamora Gastélum win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?39¢
- Will María Teresa Guerra Ochoa win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?3¢
- Will Graciela Domínguez Nava win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?<1¢
- Will Jesús Alfonso Ibarra Ramos win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?<1¢
- Will Juan de Dios Gámez Mendívil win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?<1¢
- Will Kristiam Alexis Espinoza García win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?<1¢
- Will Tomás de Jesús López Bajo win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?<1¢
- Will Rodolfo Valenzuela Sánchez win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?<1¢
- Will Guillermo Romero Rodríguez win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?<1¢
- Will Sergio Torres Félix win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?<1¢
- Will Jesús Fernando García Hernández win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?<1¢
Imelda Castro Castro holds a lead in the Sinaloa governor race for 2027 as Morena’s state coordinator following her formal selection in October 2026, backed by a confirmed coalition with the PT and PVEM that will use binding surveys to finalize the nominee. Mario Zamora Gastélum remains the strongest opposition contender, with recent polling from firms like Metrik and Arias Consultores showing him competitive or ahead in unified PRI-PAN or broader opposition scenarios amid high undecided shares. Primary factors sustaining the tight implied probabilities include Morena’s territorial structure and early alliance consolidation versus ongoing opposition negotiations over a common candidate and potential citizen consultation mechanisms. Cartel-related violence and the interim governorship add uncertainty, while upcoming municipal processes and further surveys could shift positioning before the June 2027 vote.
Rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sinaloa on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.