- Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?1¢
- Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?80¢
- Will SpaceXAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?<1¢
- Will Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?6¢
- Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?6¢
- Will Baidu be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?<1¢
- Will Z.ai be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?<1¢
- Will Xiaomi be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?<1¢
- Will Meituan be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?<1¢
- Will Mistral be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?<1¢
- Will Tencent be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?<1¢
- Will StepFun be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Google's Gemini models hold a commanding position as the likely second-ranked lab in Text Arena Math at end-September, driven by sustained high Elo scores in the arena.ai math category where Anthropic's Claude variants (including Fable-5 and Opus series) dominate the top spots through superior performance on reasoning composites, AIME, and open mathematical problems. Recent lab activity reinforces this: Anthropic's multiple Claude releases have widened its lead with documented advances in unsolved conjectures, while Google's Gemini 3.x updates and Deep Think inference scaling maintain competitive natural-language proof capabilities without overtaking the frontrunner. OpenAI's GPT iterations trail further back amid training pauses and pricing shifts. Traders appear to price in limited near-term disruption before the September resolution, given typical model iteration cycles and the stability of current leaderboard gaps.