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- Will Carol de Toni win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?26¢
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- Will Esperidião Amin win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?29¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Recent polling from late August shows a tight contest for Santa Catarina's two Senate seats, with Esperidião Amin (PP) at 19%, Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) at 16%, and Carol de Toni (PL) at 12% in consolidated first- and second-choice intentions, all within the three-point margin of error amid 23% undecided and 11% blank or null responses. Carlos Bolsonaro's late-2025 move of his electoral domicile from Rio de Janeiro to Santa Catarina, followed by the PL's August convention pairing him with de Toni on the ticket supporting Governor Jorginho Mello's reelection, has fragmented right-leaning support with PP ally Amin. This fragmentation, combined with a fragmented field of over a dozen registered candidates, keeps first-place probabilities closely matched and sensitive to shifts in undecided voters or turnout before the October 4 election.