South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
- Will Nancy Mace be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?<1¢
- Will Joe Wilson be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?<1¢
- Will Mark Lynch be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?<1¢
- Will Paul Dans be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?<1¢
- Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?20¢
- Will William Timmons be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?<1¢
- Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?<1¢
- Will Sheri Biggs be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?<1¢
- Will Pamela Evette be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?<1¢
- Will André Bauer be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?<1¢
- Will Alan Wilson be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?<1¢
- Will Scott Bessent be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election. If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Darline Graham Nordone leads the special Republican primary runoff after placing first in the August 11 primary with roughly 33 percent, ahead of Ralph Norman at about 25 percent. The contest follows the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham in July, after which his sister was appointed to the seat and received President Trump's endorsement for the full term. Norman, a sitting U.S. representative, advanced as the strongest challenger among a crowded field that included Russell Fry and several lower-polling candidates. With no candidate reaching a majority, the August 25 runoff now decides the nominee. Trader pricing reflects Graham's advantages in name recognition, the Trump endorsement, and recent primary performance, while Norman's share captures residual support among voters seeking an alternative. Other listed names remain at minimal implied probabilities consistent with their primary results and lack of advancement.