- Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to Grüne or BSW?76¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than BSW in the specified election. This market will resolve to “BSW” if BSW wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both Grüne and BSW receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Recent polling for the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtagswahl shows both parties clustered near the 5% threshold, with the Greens at 4–5% and BSW at 4–5% across INSA, pollytix, and Infratest dimap surveys from early to mid-August. The Greens benefit from incumbency after clearing the hurdle in 2021 and consistent positioning just above or at the margin in the most recent readings, while the newer BSW remains a first-time entrant without prior parliamentary presence in the state. Voter attention centers on tactical support for smaller parties to limit AfD options, with both groups issuing appeals on that basis, yet established structures and marginal polling edges favor the Greens in trader assessments reflected in the 75.5% consensus. No late campaign events have materially altered these relative standings.