- Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?26¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Recent polls from mid-August 2026, including INSA (5%), Pollytix (4%), and Infratest dimap (4%), show BSW consistently at or below the 5% threshold ahead of the September 6 Landtagswahl, with stable readings over recent weeks. The party’s state-level organization remains limited following weaker national results after the 2025 Bundestag election, while established competitors such as Die Linke (around 13%) and the SPD (6-7%) draw from overlapping voter segments. Sahra Wagenknecht’s campaign appearances and the party’s proposed “Bürgerregierung” model have not produced measurable late gains in surveys. Traders therefore assign the “Under” outcome a 74.5% implied probability, reflecting the persistent polling average and the structural barriers smaller parties face at the five-percent hurdle in this contest.