Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
- Will Eduardo Pazuello win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?<1¢
- Will Tarcísio Motta win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?<1¢
- Will Anthony Garotinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?<1¢
- Will Nicola Miccione win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?<1¢
- Will Wilson Witzel win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?<1¢
- Will André Português win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?<1¢
- Will Lindbergh Farias win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?<1¢
- Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?<1¢
- Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?2¢
- Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?<1¢
- Will Rafa Luz win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?<1¢
- Will Colonel Busnello win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?<1¢
The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Eduardo Paes (PSD) holds a commanding position in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial race, scheduled for October 4, driven by his resignation as mayor in March to pursue the state office, sustained polling leads reaching 42% in first-round scenarios, and formal endorsements from parties including MDB and PODE during July conventions. These alliances, combined with his established voter familiarity across the state and centrist positioning, have shaped trader consensus around his high implied probability. Other registered candidates such as Douglas Ruas (PL) and Anthony Garotinho trail significantly in available surveys. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments, including alliance realignments, debate performances, or turnout variations in key regions that alter second-round dynamics.