- Will the Republican Party hold below 170 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?2¢2%
- Will the Republican Party hold between 170 and 174 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?8¢8%
- Will the Republican Party hold between 175 and 179 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?8¢8%
- Will the Republican Party hold between 180 and 184 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?9¢9%
- Will the Republican Party hold between 185 and 189 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?9¢9%
- Will the Republican Party hold 190 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?61¢61%
Recent national polling shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 9–11 points amid concerns over the economy and presidential approval ratings, prompting forecasters like Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball to shift dozens of House ratings toward Democrats in the final weeks. These moves expand the battlefield into previously safe Republican districts, including open seats and rematches in Iowa, Pennsylvania, and the Sun Belt. Despite this pressure, traders assign 59.5% probability to Republicans securing 190 or more seats, reflecting the GOP’s structural advantages from redistricting, incumbency in many defensive districts, and historical midterm polling error that could limit Democratic gains to the low teens. Upcoming early voting and get-out-the-vote efforts in battlegrounds remain key variables before November 3 resolution.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.