- Will Pabel Muñoz win the next Quito mayoral election?41¢41%
- Will Wilson Merino win the next Quito mayoral election?16¢16%
- Will Jorge Yunda win the next Quito mayoral election?13¢13%
- Will Harold Burbano win the next Quito mayoral election?13¢13%
- Will Carla Larrea win the next Quito mayoral election?12¢12%
- Will Galo Almeida win the next Quito mayoral election?8¢8%
- Will César Díaz win the next Quito mayoral election?8¢8%
- Will Linda Romero win the next Quito mayoral election?7¢7%
- Will Bernardo Jijón win the next Quito mayoral election?7¢7%
- Will Paúl Desamblanc win the next Quito mayoral election?6¢6%
The November 29, 2026, Quito mayoral election features incumbent Pabel Muñoz seeking re-election amid over 680 legal and administrative actions, including recent Fiscalía raids on municipal offices tied to alleged peculado in public contracts and separate denuncias over purported kickbacks. National government officials have publicly criticized his administration's El Niño contingency planning, while opposition candidates including Harold Burbano, Wilson Merino, Jorge Yunda, and others compete in a field marked by high undecided voters exceeding 70 percent in recent surveys. These developments sustain a competitive dynamic in which no single contender has consolidated broad support, leaving trader probabilities closely aligned among the leading names and sensitive to any further shifts in legal outcomes, campaign momentum, or late voter consolidation before election day.
Rules
The 2026 Quito, Ecuador mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Quito as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Ecuadorian government, including the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, CNE, https://www.cne.gob.ec) and the Contentious Electoral Tribunal (Tribunal Contencioso Electoral, TCE, https://www.tce.gob.ec).