- Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?15¢15%
- Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?53¢53%
- Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027?67¢67%
House Democrats have positioned Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for impeachment proceedings, citing his role in military actions against Iran without congressional authorization under the War Powers Resolution, strikes on alleged narco-vessels in the Caribbean, the 2025 Signal messaging incident involving operational details, and oversight of specific strikes including one on a school in Iran. Republican Rep. Thomas Massie has introduced related articles and plans a vote after the November 3 midterms, while Democratic leaders including Hakeem Jeffries have identified Hegseth's removal as an early priority if the party gains House control. Senate conviction would require a two-thirds majority, a high bar regardless of House action, and lame-duck negotiations or executive changes could alter the timeline before any full process advances.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.