- Will the Democratic Party win the PA-07 House seat?79¢
- Will the Republican Party win the PA-07 House seat?18¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Democrat Bob Brooks holds an approximately 79% implied probability in the PA-07 House race against incumbent Republican Ryan Mackenzie, reflecting the district’s narrow R+1 partisan lean and competitive fundamentals in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley swing area. Brooks secured the Democratic nomination in the May 2026 primary and benefits from strong union backing and early fundraising advantages, including a late-June poll showing a modest lead. Mackenzie, who flipped the seat in 2024, faces a rematch environment where national midterm dynamics often pressure the president’s party, though the race remains rated a toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters due to limited recent polling and the narrow 2024 presidential margin. The contest hinges on turnout among union households and suburban voters through November.