- Will Magan's Fare win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?17¢17%
- Will Agapito win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?14¢14%
- Will Spilled Milk win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?13¢13%
- Will Pale Sun win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?11¢11%
- Will Mary is Missing win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?9¢9%
- Will Meeting Your Maker win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?8¢8%
- Will 32B win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?5¢5%
- Will Nightfaces win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?5¢5%
- Will The Birthday Gift win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?4¢4%
- Will The Man That I Wave At win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?4¢4%
Mary is Missing leads the early market at 15% implied probability, narrowly ahead of Agapito at 14.5%, reflecting festival momentum and high-profile backing in a wide-open field months before the shortlist. The Irish psychological thriller gained fresh traction from Paul Mescal’s recent executive producer role and its Cork Grand Prix win, alongside its collaborative approach with learning-disabled performers. Agapito benefits from official Philippine Film Academy support and strong reviews from its Cannes competition premiere and Toronto honorable mention. With dozens of other qualifiers still emerging and the December shortlist far off, traders are pricing in uncertainty around guild screenings, additional festival runs, and late-breaking critical consensus that typically reshape short-film frontrunners.
Rules
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.