- Will the PQ win fewer than 50 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?15¢
- Will the PQ win 50-54 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?24¢
- Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?13¢
- Will the PQ win 60-64 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?16¢
- Will the PQ win 65-69 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?14¢
- Will the PQ win 70-74 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?12¢
- Will the PQ win 75-79 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?6¢
- Will the PQ win 80 or more seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?5¢
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Recent polling and campaign developments have kept projections for Parti Québécois seats in the October 5 Quebec general election highly uncertain, producing the observed spread in trader odds. PQ maintains a narrow popular-vote edge near 28–30 percent in late-August surveys, buoyed by strong francophone support outside Montreal, yet a Synopsis poll released August 28 showed CAQ surging seven points to 27 percent—largely at the Liberals’ expense—amid heightened concerns over U.S. trade tensions and economic instability. Seat models such as 338Canada currently project a PQ median around 65 seats with wide ranges (42–79), reflecting first-past-the-post dynamics where PQ leads many close ridings but faces risks of vote splitting with Conservatives and Québec solidaire, regional variations in turnout, and potential CAQ consolidation among older or non-francophone voters. The race remains fluid because small shifts in francophone preferences or late-campaign events could move dozens of competitive seats, keeping multiple outcome bins in play.