- Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?56¢56%
- Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?41¢41%
- Will David Seymour be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Chlöe Swarbrick be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Winston Peters be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Carmel Sepuloni be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?<1¢<1%
Recent polling has bolstered Christopher Luxon's standing as the leading contender for New Zealand's next prime minister. The latest 1News-Verian survey showed National rising four points to 32 percent and opening a five-point lead over Labour on 27 percent, its strongest margin in months. This shift, ahead of the November 7 election, has lifted Luxon's implied probability in trader assessments while keeping Chris Hipkins close at 44.5 percent amid a tight contest. Preferred prime minister ratings remain narrow, with both leaders near 20 percent, and neither major bloc appears positioned for a clear majority without support from partners including ACT, NZ First, or the Greens. Minor-party figures such as David Seymour and Chlöe Swarbrick register under 1 percent each, reflecting limited standalone prospects in current coalition dynamics.
Rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.