- Will Ben Carroll be the next Premier of Victoria?20¢
- Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria?64¢
- Will Danny O'Brien be the next Premier of Victoria?<1¢
- Will Ellen Sandell be the next Premier of Victoria?<1¢
- Will Gabrielle Williams be the next Premier of Victoria?3¢
- Will Jacinta Allan be the next Premier of Victoria?4¢
- Will Jaclyn Symes be the next Premier of Victoria?<1¢
- Will Sonya Kilkenny be the next Premier of Victoria?4¢
- Will Steve Dimopoulos be the next Premier of Victoria?4¢
- Will David Southwick be the next Premier of Victoria?3¢
- Will Brad Battin be the next Premier of Victoria?<1¢
- Will Sam Groth be the next Premier of Victoria?<1¢
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Jess Wilson leads trader pricing for Victoria’s next premier at 63.5% because consistent preferred-premier polling has shown her ahead of Labor’s Ben Carroll since she became Liberal leader in late 2025, while recent surveys place the Coalition ahead or level on two-party-preferred measures ahead of the 28 November 2026 election. A late-July 2026 Labor leadership change replaced Jacinta Allan with Carroll after prolonged poor polling and caucus pressure; Carroll immediately announced a royal commission into the construction sector as a reset. Primary-vote polling has settled into a tight three-way contest (Labor, Coalition and One Nation each near 25%), raising prospects of preference flows and a possible hung parliament that would still favor Wilson forming government. Lower-priced names such as Carroll, Sonya Kilkenny and others reflect limited paths to the role absent major late shifts in voter sentiment or unexpected alliances.