- Will Jess Wilson be the next Premier of Victoria?89¢89%
- Will Ben Carroll be the next Premier of Victoria?7¢7%
- Will Warren Pickering be the next Premier of Victoria?4¢4%
- Will David Southwick be the next Premier of Victoria?3¢3%
- Will Danny O'Brien be the next Premier of Victoria?2¢2%
- Will Sonya Kilkenny be the next Premier of Victoria?1¢1%
- Will Ellen Sandell be the next Premier of Victoria?<1¢<1%
- Will Gabrielle Williams be the next Premier of Victoria?<1¢<1%
- Will Jacinta Allan be the next Premier of Victoria?<1¢<1%
- Will Sam Groth be the next Premier of Victoria?<1¢<1%
- Will Emma Kealy be the next Premier of Victoria?<1¢<1%
- Will Steve Dimopoulos be the next Premier of Victoria?<1¢<1%
Jess Wilson leads as the clear favorite for next Victorian Premier at 89.5 percent, reflecting consistent Coalition leads of 52-55 percent on two-party preferred in recent polls ahead of the November 28 state election. Wilson, Liberal leader since late 2025 and the first woman in the role, maintains strong personal ratings as preferred premier over Ben Carroll in every major survey, driven by voter focus on cost-of-living pressures, crime and justice reforms, housing supply, and state debt levels after more than a decade of Labor government. Carroll’s July 2026 elevation following Jacinta Allan’s resignation under caucus pressure has not reversed Labor’s primary vote slump into the mid-20s, with One Nation’s Warren Pickering drawing significant support that fragments the field without altering the Coalition’s projected path. Traders price other named candidates below 6 percent, consistent with limited momentum for Labor figures or minor-party alternatives.
Rules
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.