- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?20¢
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?78¢
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?96¢
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?51¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Anthropic’s accelerated 2026 cadence—Opus 4.6 in February, 4.7 in April, 4.8 in late May, and Opus 5 on July 24—has shaped trader expectations for the next flagship Opus release. Opus 5 delivers state-of-the-art gains on coding and knowledge-work benchmarks like Frontier-Bench while matching prior pricing and approaching Fable 5 performance at lower cost, reinforcing Anthropic’s emphasis on efficient, honest agentic models. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google, plus ongoing safety refinements around higher-capability variants, continues to drive rapid iteration. With no announced timeline or leaks for Opus 6 as of late August, markets reflect uncertainty around whether the sub-two-month gaps seen earlier in the year will persist or moderate after the recent cluster of 5-series launches.