- Will Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?74¢74%
- Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?20¢20%
- Will ACT New Zealand win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?7¢7%
- Will National Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?1¢1%
- Will Labour Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?<1¢<1%
- Will Te Pāti Māori win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?<1¢<1%
Recent polling averages place the Green Party firmly in third with 14–16% support, behind the closely matched National and Labour parties at around 28% each. New Zealand First and ACT hover in the 9–12% range while The Opportunities Party sits near 6%, keeping the Greens well clear of challenges for third place under the mixed-member proportional system. Minor fluctuations in the final week, including National’s occasional dips below 25% in some surveys and stable Green figures, have reinforced trader consensus on this ordering. With voting on 7 November, late shifts remain possible but current data show no movement sufficient to alter the established hierarchy.
Rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).